Last week, Shabana Mahmood set out the government's "final approach" to its earned settlement plans after a consultation that received more than 200,000 responses. The new rules are due to be published next month and will come into force in 2027.

Settlement (also called indefinite leave to remain) is the right to live in the UK permanently. The new plans change how long people must wait before they can apply for it.  

Mahmood has twice described settlement under the current rules as "automatic." This isn't true. Refugees have to apply, pass checks and go through a review to assess whether they still require protection in the UK.  

You've probably seen plenty of coverage on the new plans already. We want to focus on two changes that have had less attention, and what they mean for the people we work with.  

Arriving irregularly: a 30-year wait

Under the new plans, most people granted refugee status would wait 20 years to settle instead of five. People who arrived irregularly, for example by small boat, would wait another ten years on top. This means they would be waiting with their lives on hold for a staggering 30 years.

Since March 2026, refugee status has been granted for just 30 months at a time. This means under the new plans, someone who arrived irregularly would need to make 12 separate applications to stay.

At RLS, the vast majority of our clients arrive by irregular routes. Many come from Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Somalia or Libya. There's no visa application centre in any of these countries, and nationals of Sudan and Afghanistan are still facing a visa brake, with the same recently threatened for Eritrean nationals.  

This means people fleeing persecution, war and exploitation have almost no safe and legal routes to the UK.

So, who will help people with all these applications? Many people already can't find a legal aid lawyer. Making people reapply every 30 months will only make this shortage worse. And if a renewal is missed or late, someone can end up in the UK without permission to stay, which can push settlement even further out of reach.  

A criminal record: no settlement at all  

Under the plans, any adult with a criminal record, even a caution or court fine, would never be able to settle here. That includes people prosecuted for arriving in the UK by small boat.  

This year, our Asylum Clinic has worked with seven people prosecuted for arriving without a visa. Three have already been granted refugee status, because they would be at risk of persecution if they returned home. Under these plans, they could stay in the UK, but they would have to renew their status every 30 months, with no prospect of ever settling.

The government has repeatedly said how important it is for refugees to integrate and contribute to their new communities. But it's hard to put down roots when you're never more than two and a half years away from having to ask permission to stay all over again.  

Mahmood told Parliament the policy is "guided above all by fairness." What's fair about a system that punishes people for arriving in the UK irregularly, when for most of the people we work with, safe and legal routes don't exist?  

No one should have to earn the right to safety.